Tag: Biden

Biden’s Squandered Opportunity

Winston Churchill is said to have remarked that one should never miss the opportunity lurking behind a disaster. Perhaps, hopefully, we are missing something… but Saturday night’s Iranian attack on Israel could have been a golden opportunity for the US alliance to hit back at Iran strongly and at a minimum dial back Iran’s nuclear program for several years, or ideally, eventually provoke a regime change.

Different from say the Gazans, who overwhelmingly supported Hamas, at least until their cities became scorched earth, the Iranian people by and large do not support Teheran’s regime. Over the last decade, many grassroot Iranian groups have tried to challenge their bloodthirsty government and have pleaded for the United States to support them. A strong combined attack on Iran’s infrastructure and nuclear weapons program could have provided the ideal catalyst for a popular movement that wants to overthrow the Mullas’ regime. But instead of grabbing the opportunity that Iran served on a silver plate, Biden and his administration didn’t waste time to ask Israel not to respond. “Take a Win” is what Biden reportedly told Netanyahu.

True, the coalition that worked so effectively alongside the IDF to thwart Iran’s aggression is a win. But wars are not won only by defending well. At the right time, the opportunity must be grabbed to inflict serious damage on Iran and decapitate the octopus that is sowing terror, and war in the entire middle east. Biden is a key friend of Ukraine, doesn’t he know that Iran is supplying the drones that Russia is using against Ukraine? Doesn’t he know that Iran is a key player in the axis of evil that includes Russia, China, North Korea?

Does he really want to wait until Iran tests a nuclear weapon, thereby making it a lot more difficult to deal with? Didn’t he learn the lessons of history, that tyrants won’t get appeased?

What a colossal failure of judgment.

“Reverse” Sanctions?

President Biden has been credited in the media and in democratic circles for having responded swiftly and effectively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  While it is true that the sanctions plan that his administration has orchestrated against Russia was one of the few available arrows in his quiver that didn’t risk a wider conflict, it is becoming quite apparent that the sanctions are not effective, or at least not as intended.

A few weeks after the start of the war Biden boasted that “sanctions are working”, with the ruble in free fall worth not much more than an American penny. However, six months later, the ruble has more than doubled in value since mid-March and is now worth more (61 to the Dollar) than it was worth before the war (83 for one Dollar). In addition, Russia’s income on its Crude and Gas exports are higher than before, with a lower level of sales more than compensated by higher prices. If Russia were a corporation, it would be having a great quarter, with stable income and a fraction of Cost of Goods Sold.

So who is suffering from these sanctions? Very simple: Europe. While one should remember that Europe’s ills are mainly of its own making, with a disastrous energy policy that relied on Russia being their friend forever, it doesn’t take a sophisticated econometric model to understand that in the zero sum game of trade economics, Russia is not losing, rather it is actually winning, while European consumers and factories have to pay for its gas up to ten times the cost of last year. This is ravaging energy-heavy industries such as steel and ceramics for example, and in a way all heavy industry which is dependent on energy. We are now hearing of factories in the continent that will not reopen after the August break, as in many industries production cost is now higher than prices. Producing means losing money. If this vicious circle is not corrected, look for industrial production to take a nosedive in the fall, with all the economic and social consequences. Requests for layoffs are already being made.

The sanctions on Russia have become sanctions on Europe. There may not be a quick fix, but it is obvious that Biden’s sanctions have failed miserably. Time for a change, before the European united front fractures and populist parties gain.

Give the guy a break?

Make no mistake. Trump’s behaviour in the last two weeks in office was highly objectionable, if not much worse. His call to the mob was indeed outreagous.  As CNN loves to repeat, the peaceful transfer of power is the hallmark of every democracy, first among them the United States, where there is a constitutionally long transition period that is required in part also by the complexity of the government.

However, we learned in school that the institution of impeachment applies to sitting presidents,  in order to attempt to remove them for having committed the highest crimes in the book, including treason. While it isn’t clear that it shouldn’t apply to a president in the last days of his term, as Trump was, impeachment wasn’t framed by the founding fathers as a way to continue a political fight once the president has left Pennsylvania Avenue. The Democrats have four years now to prove their case to the American people and if the Republicans were to run again with Trump in 2024, they will have to beat him at the ballot box.

One fails to see how the continuation of this vendetta post his term will help the healing of the nation and especially Biden’s agenda. Paraphrasing  Nikki Hayley, our preferred Republican candidate for 2024: give both guys, Trump and Biden, a break!